Best December bets on the West Coast and Hawaii

December is the first month of the meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and activity in the Pacific can vary greatly from year to year. How everything develops depends on a mixture of atmospheric factors and climate drivers, of which La Nina is best known. When we look at surfing in the North Pacific during the last La Nina December it is usually below average. And when good surf comes, it often comes in bundles. Slow spells are common between developing storms with many days off. So whenever the stars align this month, capitalize on it – don’t sit around waiting for a repeat of last winter’s North Pacific overdrive. The chances of this type of magic happening again this December are slim.

Jump to your best bets: Hawaii | Southern California | North Central California

Looking back over similar years in our 40 year surfing climatology, the data suggests the North Pacific will be underproduction this month. The views are typical of La Nina: Robust high pressure north of Hawaii drives an active storm web across the northwestern Pacific, with storms sinking along the eastern edge of the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific northwest. This pattern results in more accessible surfing in Hawaii and along the west coast north of Point Conception – and slower winter surfing in Southern California. (The westerly swell is also significantly less than normal, further reducing the chances of getting a healthy surf in SoCal.)

Gallery: North Shore Stuffing

During the winter of La Nina, high pressures often prevent storms from getting too close to Hawaii or the west coast. This usually results in slower surf and less firm swells. Image: NOAA

During the first week of the month, Hawaii experiences the biggest and stormiest surf, thanks to a cutoff low north of the islands. While this is not a typical feature of La Nina, we do occasionally see storms like this one sending a solid north swell to the islands. After the opener, however, the long-range charts for Hawaii don’t look particularly fertile for the next several weeks, despite there has been a lot of uncertainty. The mid to late half of the month is the time period worth keeping a close eye on for noticeable swell.

A slow start is expected over on the west coast, but the storm trail could open by the middle of the month. The last two weeks of December usually offer better surfing potential than the first two, but it all boils down to the high pressure position over the central to northeast Pacific. The best chance for solid surf is now in mid-December. However, it will be an inch game. If the storms are driven too far east by the high pressure, they become small and offshore; a little further west and it is pumped.

Note that the deep blue blob dominates the North Pacific on this wave height anomaly chart for early December – this is the high pressure associated with La Nina confirming a slow start.

Meanwhile, the South Pacific below the Belt is slowing but will not shut down completely this month. Dominant high pressure near New Zealand keeps the surf in Hawaii minimal in the first half of the month, but more rideable waves should trickle in by the middle of the month. Over on the west coast, a couple of summer spots in SoCal will squeeze a few fun days out of humble storm activity earlier this month, and then a little more for Christmas.

Southern California

Santa Barbara | Ventura | North LA | South LA | North OK | South OK | North SD | South SD

Read: Premium forecast analysis

Forecast of wave heights in the North Pacific by mid-December.

Northern and Central California

San Francisco | Pacifica-San Mateo County | Santa Cruz | Monterey | San Luis Obispo County

Check: Detailed surf forecast

South Pacific wave height predicted by mid-December.

Hawaii

North coast | South coast | Kauai North | North Maui | Upper Westside Maui | Kona

Read: Detailed Forecast Analysis